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Anthropic Says No to $800 Billion

Anthropic is turning away investors offering $800 billion-plus valuations — a signal that the company may believe its leverage only increases from here, especially with an IPO reportedly on the table for October. Meanwhile, a routine Alaska filing revealed Google's hidden 6% stake in SpaceX, worth an estimated $100 billion at IPO. And Amazon-backed nuclear startup X-Energy hit the road this week for an $800 million IPO on Nasdaq, bringing AI's power problem one step closer to an investable thesis.

Paul Smalera

Artificial Intelligence

April 17, 2026

Paul Smalera

Artificial Intelligence

April 17, 2026

Databricks 25x, Snowflake 12x: The NAV Trap

Six private mega-caps trade at 2–3x public comps. The evergreen funds marking NAV off those prints are running a feedback loop, not price discovery. Four IPO catalysts in 120 days will break the loop or prove it right.

Paul Smalera

Aerospace & Defense

April 16, 2026

Paul Smalera

Aerospace & Defense

April 16, 2026

Recent

OpenAI says Anthropic's $30B is off by $8B

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CoreWeave has now signed the four biggest AI labs

Hardware

April 10, 2026

Anthropic's Mythos Just Broke Cybersecurity's Business Model

Artificial Intelligence

Deep dive

April 9, 2026

Dario's notes on Sam. Anthropic's $30B run rate.

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OpenAI Bought a Talk Show. Seriously.

April 3, 2026

SpaceX IPO S-1 Teardown: The Filing Nobody's Seen, Reverse-Engineered

Deep dive

April 2, 2026

The robot money is here

Artificial Intelligence

March 31, 2026

SpaceX is finally going public. Here's what it actually means.

Artificial Intelligence

March 27, 2026

The world's largest software buyer says the market is wrong about AI

Enterprise Software

March 26, 2026

Musk just announced the biggest chip factory in history. Investors should pay attention.

Artificial Intelligence

March 24, 2026

Artificial Intelligence

View more

Anthropic Says No to $800 Billion

Anthropic is turning away investors offering $800 billion-plus valuations — a signal that the company may believe its leverage only increases from here, especially with an IPO reportedly on the table for October. Meanwhile, a routine Alaska filing revealed Google's hidden 6% stake in SpaceX, worth an estimated $100 billion at IPO. And Amazon-backed nuclear startup X-Energy hit the road this week for an $800 million IPO on Nasdaq, bringing AI's power problem one step closer to an investable thesis.

Paul Smalera

Artificial Intelligence

April 17, 2026

Paul Smalera

Artificial Intelligence

April 17, 2026

Databricks 25x, Snowflake 12x: The NAV Trap

Paul Smalera

OpenAI says Anthropic's $30B is off by $8B

Paul Smalera

CoreWeave has now signed the four biggest AI labs

Paul Smalera

Anthropic's Mythos Just Broke Cybersecurity's Business Model

Paul Smalera

Enterprise Software

View more

The fastest SaaS company ever just doubled again

Cursor's revenue doubled to $2B ARR in just three months — the kind of trajectory that rewrites venture math. Reflection AI is reportedly seeking $2B+ at a $20B valuation just five months after its last raise. Meanwhile, Musk is cleaning house: X and xAI plan to repay $17.5B in debt ahead of a potential SpaceX IPO. And MongoDB's 24% post-earnings plunge is the latest signal that even strong growth can't save you when forward guidance disappoints.

Paul Smalera

Enterprise Software

March 3, 2026

Paul Smalera

Enterprise Software

March 3, 2026

Aerospace & Defense

View more

Databricks 25x, Snowflake 12x: The NAV Trap

Six private mega-caps trade at 2–3x public comps. The evergreen funds marking NAV off those prints are running a feedback loop, not price discovery. Four IPO catalysts in 120 days will break the loop or prove it right.

Paul Smalera

Aerospace & Defense

April 16, 2026

Paul Smalera

Aerospace & Defense

April 16, 2026

Deep Dive

View more

The world's largest software buyer says the market is wrong about AI

Thoma Bravo — the world's largest software buyout firm — says the market has the AI-disruption story wrong. Software fundamentals are intact. The real divide is between easily-replaced point solutions and mission-critical, compliance-heavy systems that AI won't touch. They're buying. Private markets investors should pay attention.

Paul Smalera

Deep dive

March 26, 2026

Paul Smalera

Deep dive

March 26, 2026

Anthropic's Mythos Just Broke Cybersecurity's Business Model

Paul Smalera

SpaceX IPO S-1 Teardown: The Filing Nobody's Seen, Reverse-Engineered

Paul Smalera

The world's largest software buyer says the market is wrong about AI

Paul Smalera

When ”markets” and gambling mean the same thing

Paul Smalera

Company News

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$750+ Million in AUM—and why we're just getting started

Noel Moldvai

Augment closes $12M Series A as private market trading exceeds $60B

Noel Moldvai

Tracking the pre-IPO Leaders: The Augment Power 20, Q2 2025

Noel Moldvai

Top-ranked companies end 2024 up 40% as four AI companies join the Augment Power 20

Noel Moldvai

POV

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What is liquidity risk in private markets—and how to manage it

Augment Staff

How Pension Funds Are Investing in Private Equity in 2026: Trends, Risks & Strategic Shifts

Augment Staff

How to sell your startup equity: a practical guide for employees and shareholders

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Infrastructure private equity: 5 technologies shaping the industry in 2026

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Hardware

Hardware

01/03/2026

Designing for the circular hardware economy

Hardware

01/03/2026

The evolution of silicon-carbide power chips

Hardware

01/03/2026

How modular hardware reduces electronic waste

Hardware

01/03/2026

The challenge of cooling high-density servers

Hardware

01/03/2026

Next-gen haptics for immersive experiences

Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence

01/03/2026

How AI agents are changing task automation

By 2026, the conversation has shifted from "what can AI say?" to "what can AI do?" We are moving past simple chatbots toward Agentic AI—autonomous systems capable of planning, reasoning, and executing complex workflows across multiple platforms.

Artificial intelligence

01/03/2026

Fine-tuning small language models for efficiency

Artificial intelligence

01/03/2026

The role of synthetic data in training

Artificial intelligence

01/03/2026

How multimodal ai is changing search

Artificial intelligence

01/03/2026

Why explainable ai is a business necessity

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SpaceX

$588.77
+27%

Anthropic

$441.40
+59%

Anduril

$104.09
+7%

OpenAI

$687.68
-22%

Stripe

$67.61
+30%

Databricks

$222.05
+10%

Revolut

$1,712.14
+10%

Ramp

$100.51
+6%

ByteDance

$364.51
+20%

Neuralink

$130.65
+55%

Shield AI

$156.49
+61%

Cursor AI

$1,050.43
+23%

Kalshi

$543.60
+47%

Cerebras

$105.63
+173%

Canva

$1,738.97
-16%

Perplexity

$61.68
-5%

Crusoe

$132.39
+13%

Rippling

$52.00
-11%

Polymarket

$138.10
+4%

Saronic

$34.55
+57%